Weaver, Davis & Jacob

DATA POINTS

The Retail Market in Fort Bend County 

While the state of Texas grew 7.9% from 2000 through 2004, the U.S. Bureau of Census concluded that Fort Bend County grew 24.9% from 2000 through 2004 averaging over 6% annually. That growth is predicted to continue according to the Fort Bend Economic Development Corporation. Woods and Poole Economics ranks Fort Bend as 2nd in growth for all U.S. counties for the years 2005 - 2030. (SOURCE: January 2006, Greater Ft. Bend Economic Council)

Fort Bend County ranks as the 47th fastest-growing county in the United States from July 1, 2004 to July 1, 2005. the county's population grew 4.8 percent, from 442,389 to 463,650. (SOURCE: Houston Business Journal, April 14, 2006)

Bob Graf, economic development coordinator for the city (of Missouri City), said that over the next 20 years, the population of Missouri City will double in size, from its current population of 63,112 residents to more than 120,000. (SOURCE: Houston Chronicle, Neighborhood, January 26, 2006)

Economic records set in Fort Bend County in 2005:

  • Fort Bend County’s population grew to about 450,000 residents in 2005, based on Census estimates. With a steady 5 percent increase in population, that could mean one million residents by 2005.
  • The share of commercial market value rose from 24.8 percent in 2004, to 25.4 percent.
  • Retail market grew by 9.3 percent from 2004 to 2005 providing local governments with increased sales tax.
  • The size of Fort Bend County’s labor force grew by 2.8 percent in 2005, at 225,227
  • 7,854 homes were purchase in 2005, a record for the county and an 11 percent increase from 2004
  • The unemployment rate is 5.1, similar to last year’s projection
  • In 1990, Fort Bend County had enough jobs to support about 50 percent of the population. By 2005, that number has grown to 78 percent
  • The overall market value of the county increased by 11 percent with new growth and increased appraisals both figuring in that rise

(SOURCE: The Fort Bend Herald, January 22, 2006) 

Fort Bend County has a median household income of $67,902 ($72,782 adjusted for area’s cost of living) which is ranked second highest in the nation according to Arlington, Va.-based ACCRA The Council for Community and Economic Research. (SOURCE: Houston Chronicle This Week, October 20, 2005)

According to Inc. magazine, Sugar Land ($84,842) and Missouri City ($71,902), Texas have the highest median incomes in the United States. (Inc. Magazine, May 2006)

Fort Bend County remains one of the most attractive market areas for retail growth as a result of the concentration of upscale Master Planned Communities, these include: First Colony, Lake Olympia, New Territory, Pecan Grove, Sienna Plantation, Cinco Ranch, Parkway Lakes, River Park and Greatwood. (SOURCE: January 2005, Greater Ft. Bend Economic Council) 

During the last seven years, 5.69 million square feet of centers were added to the Fort Bend County retail inventory ranging from developments such as the 1.2 million square feet Katy Mills Mall to significant community and neighborhood centers and big box retail. The future looks promising through the end of 2005 with 610,000 square feet of retail development under construction and another 2.03 million square feet planned. (SOURCE: January 2005, Greater Ft. Bend Economic Council)

At year-end 2004, the overall retail vacancy rate for the entire county was 10.35 percent.

  • Community, (496,198 square feet available) 12.92 percent vacant
  • Neighborhood (404,601 square feet available) 10.71 percent vacant
  • Regional Malls (101,270 square feet available) 4.22 percent vacant
  • Single Tenant Users (383,771 square feet available) 12.30 percent vacant
  • Strip Centers (62,359 square feet available) 7.33 percent vacan

(SOURCE: January 2005, Greater Ft. Bend Economic Council)

Retail remains the brightest sector of the commercial real estate market in Fort Bend County with 1,293,318 square feet absorbed during 2004. The largest gains were Single Tenant Users and Neighborhood centers with 450,000 square feet and 411,837 square feet absorbed, respectively. Regional Malls posted a positive 163,000 square feet. (SOURCE: January 2005, Greater Ft. Bend Economic Council) 

Also adding to the 1.29 million square feet of positive absorption was the 231,000 square feet leased in four empty boxes during 2004. (SOURCE: January 2005, Greater Ft. Bend Economic Council) 

Absorption remains significant in the single tenant and neighborhood stores as demand for household goods increased, population rose, and large retailers “super sized” their stores. As residential development continues to increase, the demand for neighborhood and strip centers will remain strong beyond 2005. (SOURCE: January 2005, Greater Ft. Bend Economic Council)

The average weighted triple net rental rates for the Fort Bend County retail market is currently $17.64 per square foot.

  • Community centers - $20.64
  • Neighborhood centers - $13.56
  • Regional Malls - $24.96
  • Strip centers - $13.68

The average rental rate remains stable despite the struggles facing the local and national economy. The average rental rate increased $1.65 to end the year to $17.64 after no measurable change in the past eight quarters. (SOURCE: January 2005, Greater Ft. Bend Economic Council)

National Trends in Commercial Real Estate

Even though these faux downtowns contain tinges of suburbia, they're taking advantage of a growing backlash against the sprawl that rings Dallas and other U.S. cities. The reaction began in the 1980s with the rise of New Urbanism, a movement of architects and planners calling for a return to traditional towns where people work, shop, live and play. (SOURCE: May 31, 2006, Page One, Wall Street Journal)

In the 1990s, Americans started venturing back into cities that had emptied out in prior decades. Basking in the glow of falling crime rates and glamorized by television shows such as "Seinfeld" and "Friends," cities themselves began to woo residential and retail development. (SOURCE: May 31, 2006, Page One, Wall Street Journal)

Only one mall has opened in 2006, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, a New York City-based trade group. By contrast, more than 60 so-called lifestyle centers -- outdoor shopping areas with plazas, fountains and pedestrian streets -- are planned to open this year and next. (SOURCE: May 31, 2006, Page One, Wall Street Journal)